When conflicts begin, unpredictable and unimaginable outcomes can become all too real. Widening unrest could destabilize other countries in Russia’s orbit, such as Kazakhstan, and even spill into Russia itself. Putin will face a long, bloody insurgency that could spread across multiple borders, perhaps even reaching into Belarus to challenge Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Putin’s stalwart ally. But if Russia pushes on to occupy much of the country and install a Kremlin-appointed puppet regime in Kyiv, a more protracted and thorny conflagration will begin. It will enjoy reliable military and economic support from abroad and the backing of a united population. If Russia limits its offensive to the east and south of Ukraine, a sovereign Ukrainian government will not stop fighting. But Putin’s best-laid plans might easily unravel in the face of popular Ukrainian national resistance and an insurgency. As a retired Russian-speaking CIA operations officer who served in Central Asia and managed agency counterinsurgency operations, I did not think Putin would have attacked Ukraine unless he had already devised a reliable end game, given the costs of an intractable conflict. ![]() Although some reports suggest Ukrainian troops have rebuffed attacks in certain parts of the country, it seems more likely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will decide just how far Russia goes into Ukraine. ![]() The Ukrainian military is no match for this Russian juggernaut. Russian forces have struck targets across Ukraine and seized key facilities and swaths of territory.
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